地理探测器在判别滑坡稳定性影响因素中的应用     

支泽民  陈琼  张强  周强  刘峰贵  赵富昌  陈永萍 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2021,32(2):19-26

高山峡谷区是滑坡灾害频发地区,随着气候变化和人类活动加剧,滑坡呈多发、频发态势。本文选择坐落于横断山高山峡谷区的西藏江达县作为研究区,利用野外调查获取的85个滑坡数据,选取坡度、河流密度、地貌类型、降水量、距断层距离、道路密度、地震动峰值加速度、岩性等8个稳定性影响因素,运用地理探测器对滑坡稳定性的影响因素进行了探测。结果表明:（1）按滑坡体体积划分等级,江达县滑坡主要以中、小型滑坡为主;按其稳定性划分,50%以上的滑坡处于稳定状态;按危险等级划分,以Ⅲ级、Ⅳ级为主;江达县滑坡主要沿河流与道路分布,全县地面调查发现85处滑坡全部分布于河流附近,其中71.76%的滑坡分布于道路两侧。（2）江达县滑坡稳定性的主要影响因子为地貌类型、河流密度、道路密度和距断层距离,其贡献率分别为0.501,0.477,0.465,0.332;当影响因子两两相互作用时,因子解释力总是大于单个因子对滑坡稳定性的解释力,即当两种影响因子相互作用时,对于滑坡的失稳具有促进作用。  相似文献   

辽宁省沈抚新区区域地壳稳定性评价     

张春山  张树轩  杨为民  孟华君  吕佳进  张田田  吴季寰  郭涵 《地质力学学报》2021,27(3):453-462

在广泛收集资料和野外调查工作的基础上,经综合分析控制和影响区域地壳稳定性的主要因素和内外动力地质的耦合作用,基于ArcGIS平台采用多因素加权叠加分析方法开展了沈抚新区区域地壳稳定性评价研究。评价因素主要选取活动断裂、地震活动性和深部地球物理以及工程岩组、地形地貌与地表地质灾害等共12个影响因子,并依据评价因素的关联性和重要性进行分类赋值,进而建立了区域地壳稳定性评价模型。对沈抚新区的区域地壳稳定性进行了定量化评价。结果表明,沈抚新区以稳定区和次稳定区为主,面积为728.9 km2,占总面积的81.07%,有利于规划和建设。建议在地下工程穿越不稳定区和次不稳定区时,要采取必要的工程措施,确保基础和边坡的稳定性。规划的地铁9号线主要穿越次不稳定区和次稳定区。施工带在埋深15~25 m之间,该段地层主要为卵砾石堆积层、泥包砾堆积层与变质片麻岩强风化带及其交接部位,施工带处于地下水浸没带或变动带,其支护比较困难,建议尽早确定合理的施工方案,保障施工顺利和安全,此外还需要采取一定降水防腐措施。   相似文献   

岩石铷-锶和钐-钕同位素标准物质的研制     

唐索寒  李津  潘辰旭  刘辉  闫斌 《岩矿测试》2021,(2):285-295

通常样品的⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr和¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd同位素比值分析采用SRM9⁸⁷、JNdi-1作为标准物质,它们分别是纯的碳酸盐和氧化物,适用于监控质谱测试过程。中国现有的钐-钕地质和铷-锶年龄标准物质,分别为玄武岩和钾长石,它们与很多地质样品的基质存在差别。仅有这两种基质的标准物质不能有效地监控不同地质样品Rb-Sr、Sm-Nd同位素分析过程,因此研制不同岩性的Rb-Sr、Sm-Nd同位素标准物质具有重要现实意义。本文采集中国典型地区的橄榄岩、榴辉岩和花岗岩作为候选物,严格按照《一级标准物质技术规范》(JJF 1006-1994)和《标准物质定值的通用原则及统计学原理》(JJF 1343-2012)等相关标准物质国家计量技术规范和国家标准,研制了橄榄岩、榴辉岩和花岗岩铷-锶、钐-钕同位素标准物质(编号为GBW04139、GBW04140、GBW04141),其中橄榄岩标准物质适用于高Mg、Fe,低Rb、Nd含量样品的分析,榴辉岩和花岗岩标准物质适用于含有难溶副矿物的岩石样品的分析。每个标准物质具有6个特性量值,Rb、Sr、Sm和Nd含量分布分别为0.16~64μg/g、12~560μg/g、0.1~3.2μg/g和0.3~15.3μg/g,⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr比值分布为0.70446~0.71309,¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd比值分布为0.51115~0.51267,同位素比值精度达到或优于同类标准物质。这些特性量值更接近实际样品,使用时将更加有效和方便。该系列标准物质可用于校准仪器和评价方法,并能有效监控实验室此类样品的铷-锶、钐-钕同位素分析过程。  相似文献   

中国西部寒区流域冰川水文调节功能研究     

贺青山  杨建平  陈虹举  王彦霞  唐凡  冀钦  葛秋伶 《冰川冻土》2021,43(5):1512-1522

冰川作为固体水库以“削峰填谷”的形式显著调节径流丰枯变化,冰川的水文调节功能对于中国西北干旱区至关重要。使用现有VIC-CAS模型模拟得到中国西部寒区2014—2100年径流预估数据,从趋势和波动变化相结合的视角,基于径流变差系数法,构建了冰川水文调节指数（Glacier_R）,分析了9个寒区流域冰川径流变化的稳定性,详细剖析了历史时期（1971—2010年）和未来到21世纪末这些流域冰川水文调节功能的强弱变化。结果表明：历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,除长江流域外,青藏高原其余流域的冰川径流减小时间节点为2020s,西北内陆河流域则为2010s。历史时期及RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下至21世纪末,尽管西部寒区大部分流域的冰川径流呈减少趋势,但波动幅度减小或无明显变化,冰川径流稳定性增强或无变化。总体上,西北内陆河流域的冰川水文调节功能较高,青藏高原流域的冰川水文调节功能较低。RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,至21世纪末,西部寒区各流域冰川水文调节功能均呈现减弱趋势,西北内陆河流域减弱更加显著,如RCP4.5情景下,木扎提河冰川水文调节功能降幅达25.4%,而青藏高原各流域的冰川水文调节功能一直处于较低水平。从年代际变化来看,1970s—2010s是寒区流域冰川水文调节功能较强的时期,1980s和2000s两个时段冰川水文调节功能尤强;RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,未来到21世纪末,冰川调节功能明显减弱。减弱的时间节点不同,最早为1970s,最晚为2020s。  相似文献   

基于理想点-可拓云模型的隧道围岩稳定性评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

何乐平  罗舒月  胡启军  蔡其杰  李浴辉 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2021,32(2):126-134

为了对隧道围岩稳定性进行准确评价并解决研究过程中存在的模糊性和随机性以及评价指标不相容的问题,减少单一的主客观赋权法所带来的误差,将云模型引入可拓理论中,利用可拓理论能够实现矛盾问题向相容问题转化的特点和云模型具有处理事物双重不确定性的优势并结合理想点组合赋权法对隧道围岩进行稳定性评价研究。通过文献调研、数据统计的方式,选取具有代表性的6个指标组成隧道围岩评价指标体系,用理想点法赋予评价指标组合权重,并构建可拓云模型对隧道围岩稳定性进行综合评价。通过将此方法应用于工程实例并与其他方法对比,结果表明:基于理想点-可拓云模型的隧道围岩稳定性评价方法能够减少评价过程中存在的不确定性问题,克服单一赋权方法的不足,具有良好的适用性,可以应用于实际工程中。  相似文献   

冻融循环下加筋膨胀土边坡稳定性模型试验     

吕建航  杨忠年  时伟  李国玉  凌贤长  张莹莹 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(5):1587-1596

控制边坡在冻融循环中的劣化作用,可保障季节冻土区域膨胀土边坡长期稳定。为确定土工格栅对膨胀土边坡在冻融循环过程中的稳定效果与工程意义,本文开展了膨胀土边坡模型试验,对比冻融过程中边坡内土压力、含水率、位移、温度变化。结果表明：土工格栅可约束膨胀土冻融裂缝,使裂缝发育更为均匀一致,同时减小边坡位移;加筋材料能抑制边坡水分迁移与热传导并减小土压力变化;对膨胀土边坡加筋处理可显著降低含水率波动幅值,从而减小膨胀土受含水率变化引发的胀缩劣化;不同于普通黏土,膨胀土边坡冻融循环中呈现冻缩融胀特点,而边坡加筋可有效提升冻土区膨胀土边坡的冻融稳定性,具有工程应用价值。  相似文献   

台风Chanchu(0601)变性过程中的强度变化及环境场分析     

刘珍圆  王咏青  张秀年  周玉淑 《热带气象学报》2019,35(4):528-538

利用非静力中尺度WRF模式模拟的台风Chanchu(0601)的输出资料,探讨了Chanchu减弱变性过程的强度及结构变化。分析结果表明:在台风Chanchu北移过程中,高层的暖心被破坏,强度快速减弱,眼壁对流发展高度降低,眼壁对流由对称结构演变为非对称,内核对流减弱。此减弱变性过程与惯性稳定度减小、垂直风切变增强、低层锋生等环境要素有关。惯性稳定度与台风强度变化一致,随着惯性稳定度降低,最大切向风减弱并不断外扩,Rossby变形半径增大从而潜热释放不集中难以维持台风强度,台风减弱;同时,内核区的高层暖心更易径向频散,从而高层暖心难以维持;环境的垂直风切变增强使台风的斜压性增强,台风垂直结构的倾斜度增大,对流发展高度降低;低层冷空气侵入台风中心趋于填塞,也利于台风强度减弱;台风登陆以后冷暖空气对比导致的锋生使得不稳定能量释放从而重新加强了Chanchu环流内的中低层对流活动,但较台风最强时刻而言对流强度减弱。总体减少的对流和降低的对流高度,导致潜热能释放减小,其向心输送也减少,不足以维持强暖心结构,最终使得台风减弱并变性。   相似文献   

Response of ocean dynamics to multiple equilibria of the Kuroshio path South of Japan     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

Variability of the Kuroshio path to the south of Japan plays a central role in the local climate change and exerts tremendous influences on the local atmosphere and ocean. In this study, the response of ocean dynamics, in terms of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), potential vorticity (PV), relative vorticity, and eddy-mean flow interaction, to the Kuroshio path change is discussed. Kuroshio path south of Japan includes the near-shore non-large meander (nNLM), the off-shore non-large meander (oNLM), and the typical large meander (tLM). Analyses reveal that the distribution of EKE, PV, relative vorticity, and energy exchange between the eddy field and the mean flow respectively varies with the Kuroshio path: (1) The tLM has the maximum EKE along the path; (2) The positive and negative PV are located at the onshore and offshore side of Kuroshio axis, respevetively; (3) The distributions of anomalous relative voritcity of nNLM, oNLM, and tLM are consistent with sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs); (4) The tLM has the largest energy exchange between the eddy field and the mean flow in terms of the rate of barotropic energy conversion. On the other hand, the stability analysis of ocean currents suggests that the three Kuroshio paths south of Japan have their own intrinsic properties of the instability.  相似文献   

Efficient stochastic analysis of unsaturated slopes subjected to various rainfall intensities and patterns     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2023,14(1):101490

Rainfall infiltration poses a disastrous threat to the slope stability in many regions around the world. This paper proposes an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-based stochastic analysis framework to estimate the rainfall-induced slope failure probability. An unsaturated slope under rainfall infiltration in spatially varying soils is selected in this study to investigate the influences of the spatial variability of soil properties (including effective cohesion c′, effective friction angle φ′ and saturated hydraulic conductivity k_s), as well as rainfall intensity and rainfall pattern on the slope failure probability. Results show that the proposed framework in this study is capable of computing the failure probability with accuracy and high efficiency. The spatial variability of k_s cannot be overlooked in the reliability analysis. Otherwise, the rainfall-induced slope failure probability will be underestimated. It is found that the rainfall intensity and rainfall pattern have significant effect on the probability of failure. Moreover, the failure probabilities under various rainfall intensities and patterns can be easily obtained with the aid of the proposed framework, which can provide timely guidance for the landslide emergency management departments.  相似文献   

Centrifuge modelling of landslides and landslide hazard mitigation: A review     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2023,14(1):101493

Landslides are serious geohazards that occur under a variety of climatic conditions and can cause many casualties and significant economic losses. Centrifuge modelling, as a representative type of physical modelling, provides a realistic simulation of the stress level in a small-scale model and has been applied over the last 50 years to develop a better understanding of landslides. With recent developments in this technology, the application of centrifuge modelling in landslide science has significantly increased. Here, we present an overview of physical models that can capture landslide processes during centrifuge modelling. This review focuses on (i) the experimental principles and considerations, (ii) landslide models subjected to various triggering factors, including centrifugal acceleration, rainfall, earthquakes, water level changes, thawing permafrost, excavation, external loading and miscellaneous conditions, and (iii) different methods for mitigating landslides modelled in centrifuge, such as the application of nails, piles, geotextiles, vegetation, etc. The behaviors of all the centrifuge models are discussed, with emphasis on the deformation and failure mechanisms and experimental techniques. Based on this review, we provide a best-practice methodology for preparing a centrifuge landslide test and propose further efforts in terms of the seven aspects of model materials, testing design and equipment, measurement methods, scaling laws, full-scale test applications, landslide early warning, and 3D modelling to better understand the complex behaviour of landslides.  相似文献